Fed Cuts Rates 25bps, But the Real Shock Is What Comes Next
- Fed cuts 25bps as expected, but avoids committing to further easing.
- Split vote exposes uncertainty over labour softness and inflation stickiness.
- Guidance now outweighs the cut — January and 2026 path will drive markets.
The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%, delivering the cut markets overwhelmingly expected — but without offering clear momentum toward further easing.
Today’s decision was non-unanimous, reinforcing the uncertainty that has dominated investor sentiment over the past week.
Guidance Is the Market Focus, Not the Cut
The FOMC acknowledged slowing job gains, a higher unemployment trend through Q3, and inflation that has ticked higher since early 2025.
While policymakers noted that downside risks to employment have risen, they stopped short of committing to a sustained cutting cycle. Instead, today’s statement places future policy firmly on a data-dependent track.
The committee reiterated that it will evaluate “incoming data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks” before deciding on further changes.
Crypto traders will interpret this stance as neutral to slightly cautious. Without explicit forward commitment, January and March now become the key pivot points for rate-path expectations.
This aligns with pre-meeting discussions where analysts warned that a hawkish cut was possible: easing today, but without a dovish roadmap.
The omission of forward-leaning language suggests the Fed wants flexibility, particularly with inflation described as “somewhat elevated” and uncertainty around growth still high.
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Rare Split Vote Highlights Internal Tension
The vote breakdown underscores a divided committee. Stephen Miran preferred a larger 50-basis-point cut, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid wanted policy left unchanged.
A three-way split like this reflects the uncertainty ahead. Labour softness is rising, inflation is no longer drifting steadily downward, and views on how much easing the economy needs appear increasingly divided.
This three-way split is notable. It signals disagreement over how much slack is emerging in the economy — and whether easing should move faster or pause altogether. Markets will read this as confirmation that the cycle is no longer cleanly dovish.
Balance Sheet Note Worth Flagging
The Fed also announced readiness to purchase short-term Treasuries as needed to maintain reserve adequacy — subtle, but important for liquidity conditions. This could act as a stabilizer if volatility rises into 2026.
Today’s move lands exactly where markets expected, but without a roadmap. The tone is measured, cautious, and data-dependent rather than dovish.
With guidance now the key driver, focus immediately turns to January. The rate cut was the headline. The future is where the real reaction will form.
