• Fed independence threatened as Trump appoints new chair in May 2026; weakening dollar could boost Bitcoin demand.
• AI stocks face correction as enterprise demand lags; resulting selloff could trigger broad risk-off sentiment hitting crypto.
• Tariff impacts hitting real economy in 2026 may sustain inflation, limiting Fed rate cuts and pressuring crypto.

Bloomberg’s year-end Trumponomics podcast delivered a comprehensive outlook for the global economy in 2026. Stephanie Flanders, head of government and economics at Bloomberg, hosted the episode.

It featured Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics; Mario Parker, managing editor for US politics; and Parmy Olson, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering AI.

No Crypto Talk, But Four Themes Matter

Over nearly 48 minutes, the panel covered a broad range of topics, including trade and tariffs, security (Ukraine), AI, the Federal Reserve, China, and the overall US economy. Notably, cryptocurrency was never directly mentioned.

However, four themes discussed during the podcast stand out as particularly relevant for digital asset markets heading into 2026. Below is an analysis of those selected topics and their potential implications for crypto.

1. Threats to Fed Independence

Orlik addressed the Federal Reserve’s independence as one of the most consequential issues for 2026. President Trump will have the authority to appoint a new Fed chair when Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Kevin Hasset is widely considered a leading candidate, while Steven Myron has already joined the Fed board.

“An independent Federal Reserve is a fundamental underpinning of market confidence that the US will be serious about controlling inflation,” Orlik said. “If that confidence is undermined, well, the status of the dollar, the status of the Treasury market, both open to question.”

Crypto implication: Erosion of Fed independence is a double-edged sword for crypto. If the dollar’s credibility weakens, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative could gain traction. Grayscale noted in its 2026 outlook that “the outlook for fiat currencies is increasingly uncertain; in contrast, we can be highly confident that the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined in March 2026.”

However, policy uncertainty could also trigger risk-off sentiment, pressuring crypto prices in the short term alongside other risk assets.

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2. AI Bubble Risk

Olson warned of a potential correction in AI-related stocks in 2026. “You’ve got 900 million people using ChatGPT every week. That’s astoundingly successful from a market dominance perspective, but it’s not really making money for OpenAI because very few of those people are paying subscriptions,” she said. She compared the current environment to the dot-com bubble and the 19th-century railroad boom.

Crypto implication: QCP Capital analysts noted that “crypto remains caught in the macro crosscurrents,” with AI stocks acting as “a key driver of broader risk sentiment.” If AI stocks correct, the resulting risk-off sentiment would likely drag crypto markets down as well.

3. Tariff Pass-Through to the Real Economy

Orlik noted that one surprise of 2025 was how slowly tariffs passed through to consumer prices and corporate earnings. However, he expects this to change in early 2026. “That pass-through of tariffs to the rest of the economy—higher prices at the shops, lower margins for US businesses, potentially a hit to US stocks—that’s still something that will play out in the early months of 2026,” he said.

Crypto implication: If tariff-driven inflation persists, the Fed’s ability to cut rates will be constrained. YouHodler noted that “prolonged high interest rates could reduce risk appetite and slow capital inflows into crypto assets.” However, in a stagflation scenario—where inflation persists alongside slowing growth—Bitcoin could be re-evaluated as an inflation hedge.

4. Dollar Stability and Political Dynamics

Orlik highlighted a potential paradox in post-midterm political dynamics. If Trump loses ground in the midterms and faces gridlock in Congress, he may turn to the Fed—where he will have appointed his own chair—as an alternative lever of influence.

“It could be that there’s some dynamic between loss of power at the midterms, greater capacity to and willingness to influence the Fed, which could potentially play out in a pretty negative way for the US bond market.”

Crypto implication: Dollar instability has historically correlated with Bitcoin demand. Grayscale projected that “digital money systems like Bitcoin and Ethereum that offer transparent, programmatic, and ultimately scarce supply will be in rising demand due to rising fiat currency risks.”

Q1 Will Set the Direction

Institutional forecasts for Bitcoin’s 2026 price vary widely. Grayscale expects a new all-time high in the first half of the year, declaring “the end of the four-year cycle theory.” JP Morgan projects $170,000, while Fundstrat sees $200,000 to $250,000. Bear-case scenarios point to a potential drop below $75,000 if global liquidity tightens.

The big picture for 2026 appears bullish, given the Trump economic mandate, the Fed’s policy trajectory, and crypto-friendly regulation. But the unknown outcomes of the AI buildout and the actual impact of rate cuts on consumers and the economy will likely determine the direction markets take in Q1 and Q2.