To sum things up

• Arthur Hayes proposes that the decrease in Bitcoin’s cost, soon after the send off of the Bitcoin ETF might act as a preventative sign.
• Hayes points to a correlation of 4.14 percent between the local low of the 2-year US Treasury and Bitcoin’s peak.
• Hayes challenges the conviction ascribing Bitcoin’s value downturn to Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) surges.

Arthur Hayes, a well-known crypto trader, views the price drop of Bitcoin (BTC) that occurred just two weeks after the launch of the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) as a “cautionary sign.”

He emphasizes the connection between the recent peak of Bitcoin and the local low of 4.14 percent in the two-year US Treasury this month, which is currently showing a gradual increase.

Arthur Hayes Short-Term Prediction of Bitcoin Price

Hayes disproves the common claim that the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) outflows are to blame for Bitcoin’s recent price decline in a recent blog post.

“That argument is bogus because, as of January 22, there was a net inflow of $820 million when you add the outflows from GBTC to the inflows into the newly listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.”

In the mean time, BeInCrypto as of late detailed that since the endorsement of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Grayscale has seen more than $3.3 billion in outpourings.

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However, he features the Bank Expression Subsidizing System (BTFP) possibly not getting restored as a clarification for this financial backer opinion.

The US government established the BFTP as an initiative to guarantee that banks maintain sufficient liquidity to fulfill the needs of businesses and households. This is particularly important in case of a substantial volume of withdrawals within a short timeframe.

March 12 is when the BTFP renewal decision will be made. Hayes anticipates that Bitcoin’s price will continue to fall until the decision is made public.

$33,600 is the result of a 30% decline from the ETF approval high of $48,000. As a result, I think Bitcoin can support between $30,0000 and $35,000. That’s why I bought $35,000 strike puts for 29 March 2024.

However, following the anticipated decision, he anticipates a trend reversal and a rise in Bitcoin’s price.

“As the SPX and NDX dump because of a smaller than usual monetary emergency in Spring, Bitcoin will ascend as it will front-run the possible change of rate cuts and cash printing chat for the Fed into the activity of squeezing that Brrrr button.”

The price of a Bitcoin is $41,921 at the time of publication.

Arthur Hayes Long-Term Outlook

When discussing Bitcoin, Hayes confidently makes specific and optimistic projections.

BeInCrypto reported in July 2023 that Hayes predicted that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the crypto halving event, and the falling interest rate would propel Bitcoin to $70,000 by the end of 2024. Hayes said:

“That is the point at which the genuine tomfoolery begins. That is the point at which the genuine positively trending market begins.”

Yet, Hayes’ optimism extends further to 2026. In two years’ time, he envisions the Bitcoin price reaching a range from $750,000 to $1 million.

He isn’t the main one to toss out six-figure cost expectations as of late.

Investigation firm Messari anticipated that Bitcoin would reach $600,000 before the year’s over. In the meantime, VanEck anticipates $275,000, while ETC Group anticipates $100,000.