Taylor Swift Engagement: Did Her Guitarist Game Polymarket Odds?
In Brief
- A Polymarket user bet $385,000 on Taylor Swift’s engagement, shifting market odds by 12% just before the news broke.
- Crypto sleuths linked “romanticpaul” to Paul Sidoti, Swift’s longtime guitarist, sparking online speculation.
- The case raises questions about whether such Web3 wagers count as insider trading, and what they mean for online betting.
User “romanticpaul” made aggressive Polymarket bets on Taylor Swift’s engagement less than 24 hours before the announcement went public. He moved a $385,000 market by around 12% more or less by himself.
Crypto sleuths have noticed that Paul Sidoti, Taylor Swift’s guitarist for the last 18 years, could fit the bill of this gambler. Of course, it could all be a coincidence, but this story raises interesting questions.
Taylor Swift on Polymarket
Global celebrity and pop star Taylor Swift announced her engagement to NFL player Travis Kelce today, and her fans have been over the moon.
Her romantic life was so popular among fans that it triggered a series of bets on Polymarket, some of which became quite large. Since the announcement, several new Taylor Swift bets then went live on Polymarket.
Crypto fans and “Swifties” don’t necessarily have a ton of overlap, but her public presence is massive by anyone’s measure. Naturally, there was a sizable market to gamble on her engagement before the announcement took place.
One user, however, noticed an oddity with this Polymarket offering on Taylor Swift’s love life:
This individual’s bets on Taylor Swift’s engagement substantially moved a hefty Polymarket category. At the time of closing, this market had over $385,000 riding on it, and “romanticpaul” moved its odds by around 12%.
Whoever this person is, they must have been supremely confident.
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A New Kind of Insider Trading?
Quickly afterwards, another user noticed an interesting tidbit. Paul Sidoti has been Taylor Swift’s guitarist for the last 18 years, making him a plausible candidate for this Polymarket gambler. His name makes him eligible to be “romanticpaul,” and a long-term associate like him might know this bombshell development a day before the general public.
If these rumors are true, it might constitute a bizarre form of Web3 insider trading. Even if the current legal environment were more unfriendly to crypto, it’s not clear if this is even illegal. Technically, Americans aren’t supposed to use Polymarket, but that’s a trivial infraction. Moreover, “crime is legal now,” and crypto enforcement is way down.
To be clear, though, this could all be a coincidence. There are a lot of people named Paul in the world, and the Polymarket gambler could’ve used it as a fake name.
BeInCrypto isn’t accusing Paul Sidoti, the guitarist, of anything. Still, it’s interesting to consider the ramifications as a thought experiment, if nothing else.
If romanticpaul did have insider information, at least he didn’t directly rip anyone off. Meme coins get sniped and the snipers go unpunished on a regular basis today.
Is there any real reason why Taylor Swift’s loved ones shouldn’t make a quick buck on Polymarket too?
