• The Fed’s June minutes show a split vote on raising interest rates.
• Nine of 19 officials expect one rate hike before the end of 2026.
• Bitcoin traded near $62,200, down 2.8%, after the hawkish minutes release.

The Federal Reserve released minutes from its June 16-17 meeting on July 8, showing a divided committee that unanimously held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% while flagging inflation risks tied to artificial intelligence spending.

The meeting was Chair Kevin Warsh’s first since taking over the Fed. All 12 voting members backed the hold, though the minutes revealed disagreement over whether a hike is still needed this year.

Officials Split Over the Case for a Hike

A few participants argued a rate increase was justified at the June meeting but ultimately supported holding steady, the minutes said. Most officials cited persistent inflation risk from tariffs, Middle East energy costs, and AI-driven demand for tech, data centers, and electricity.

Nine of 19 officials penciled in at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, a reversal from earlier projections that showed no hikes at all. Warsh did not submit a projection.

At his post-meeting press conference, Warsh described the internal debate in blunt terms.

“We had a good family fight on it for a couple of days, and we ended up, I think, in a better place.”

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AI Buildout Complicates the Inflation Picture

Fed staff raised inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing tariff pass-through, Middle East supply shocks, and surging AI infrastructure investment. Core inflation ran at 3.3% in April and was estimated near 3.4% in May, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Several participants said AI spending could eventually lower costs through productivity gains, though that effect would take years to appear. Meanwhile, demand for data centers and high-tech equipment keeps adding upward pressure on prices.

Bitcoin Dips as Markets Digest the Hawkish Tone

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $62,240 on Wednesday, down about 2.7% over the past 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto data at press time.

The move followed a preview of the release that flagged Warsh’s silence on his own rate projection as a key source of uncertainty.

The drop follows Bitcoin options activity that turned call-heavy ahead of the minutes, days after Bitcoin’s rebound toward $64,000 on bullish ETF flows. It shows how sensitive crypto markets remain to rate-hike expectations, a dynamic also visible in the earlier Fed independence fight over Governor Lisa Cook.

Analysts See a Widening Macro-Crypto Link

Ahead of the release, Ryan Kirkley, co-founder and CEO of Global Settlement Network, said the moves in oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar showed markets were already repricing for a longer inflation fight rather than a one-off shock.

The minutes bore that out, tying elevated inflation to AI-related demand, tariffs, and Middle East energy costs.

“Crypto is now reacting to oil, rates, the dollar and treasury yields… It bleeds when macro bleeds.”

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29. With inflation still running above target and nine officials now leaning toward a hike, upcoming inflation and jobs data will likely determine whether Warsh’s “family fight” ends in a rate increase or another hold.